Packers vs Browns – Week 3 2025
GB
CLE
GB
AWAY
10@13
CLE BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 10, Cleveland Browns 13.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 81% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Packers, 1 Browns.
Model confidence: GB 81%Our line: GB -11.6
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -11.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.082Net EPA / play-0.094
+0.115 (4)Offense EPA / play-0.190 (31)
+0.033 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.096 (5)
47.7% (5)Offense success %34.5% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A+-tier pick misses. CLE takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but CLE won. Projected margin was 11.6, the model overestimated by 14.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
79°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@GBW16 2021 | CLE 22, GB 24 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs CLE
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 81% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project GB by 11.6. The market has GB at -8.5.
Cleveland Browns won, GB 10, CLE 13. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 81% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -8.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 3, the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.2, 1.7 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Green Bay Packers, CLE 22, GB 24 in Week 16 of 2021.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against CLE -0.094.
