2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ BAL – Week 3 2025
DET
BAL
DET
AWAY
38@30
DET +8
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DET
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: DET 50%Projected margin: 1.0
DET
PICK SIDE
+4.5
SPREAD
1.0
PROJ MARGIN
+191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 1.0. Actual: 8. Off by 9.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | +191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +191 | Won · +$1.91 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1SEASON PPR
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BALW7 2023 | DET 6, BAL 38 | DET | L |
| BAL@DETW3 2021 | BAL 19, DET 17 | BAL | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES