Lions vs Ravens – Week 3 2025
DET
BAL
DET
AWAY
38@30
DET BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 38, Baltimore Ravens 30.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Lions, 4 Ravens.
Model confidence: DET 50%Our line: DET +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DET +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.091Net EPA / play+0.010
+0.081 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (12)
-0.010 (14)Defense EPA / play+0.024 (20)
45.2% (12)Offense success %44.6% (13)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked DET. Projected margin: 0.0. Actual: 8. Off by 8.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 12.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Primetime 3-2 ATS (60%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
74°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BALW7 2023 | DET 6, BAL 38 | DET | L |
| BAL@DETW3 2021 | BAL 19, DET 17 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs BAL
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 0.0. The market has DET at +4.5.
Detroit Lions won, DET 38, BAL 30. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 50% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at +4.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 3, the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 6.9 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, DET 6, BAL 38 in Week 7 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against BAL +0.010.
