2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
BAL @ DET – Week 3 2021
BAL
DET
BAL
AWAY
19@17
BAL +2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER S
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 73%Projected margin: -11.5
BAL
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
-11.5
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 11.5. Actual: 2. Off by 9.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -344 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
228.3SEASON PPR
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BALW3 2025 | DET 38, BAL 30 | DET | W |
| DET@BALW7 2023 | DET 6, BAL 38 | DET | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES