Ravens vs Lions – Week 3 2021
BAL
DET
BAL
AWAY
19@17
BAL BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 19, Detroit Lions 17.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Ravens, 1 Lions.
Model confidence: BAL 73%Our line: BAL -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -8.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.065Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.005 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.063 (23)
+0.070 (27)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (30)
46.4% (10)Offense success %42.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 2. Off by 6.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@BALW3 2025 | DET 38, BAL 30 | DET | W |
| DET@BALW7 2023 | DET 6, BAL 38 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs DET
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.2. The market has BAL at -7.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 19, DET 17. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -7.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 3, the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 5.2 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 38, BAL 30 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL -0.065 against DET -0.161.
