SEA @ MIN – Week 3 2021
SEA
MIN
SEA
AWAY
17@30
MIN BY 13
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: SEA 58%Our line: SEA -2.7
SEA
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.7
OUR LINE
-138
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.003Net EPA / play+0.035
+0.031Offense EPA / play+0.017
+0.028Defense EPA / play-0.018
43.2%Offense success %41.4%
46.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SEA but MIN won. Projected margin was 2.7, the model overestimated by 15.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 15.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | SEA | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -120 | +109 |
| Our fair price | -138 | +138 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SEA -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
53%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for SEA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SEA
DK Metcalf
WR
244.3 SEASON PPR
Russell Wilson
QB
242.8 SEASON PPR
Tyler Lockett
WR
241.4 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Seattle SeahawksPASSING
Russell Wilson3113 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
Rashaad Penny749 yd · 6 TD
Alex Collins411 yd · 2 TD
Chris Carson232 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Tyler Lockett73 rec · 1175 yd · 8 TD
DK Metcalf75 rec · 967 yd · 12 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@SEAW13 2025 | MIN 0, SEA 26 | SEA | W |
| MIN@SEAW16 2024 | MIN 27, SEA 24 | MIN | W |
| MIN@SEAW5 2020 | MIN 26, SEA 27 | SEA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSSEA vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SEA by 2.7. The market has SEA at -2.0.
The model projects 47.3 combined points. The market total is 53.5.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, MIN 0, SEA 26 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Minnesota Vikings: SEA +0.003 against MIN +0.035.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
