Commanders vs Bills – Week 3 2021
WAS
BUF
WAS
AWAY
21@43
BUF BY 22
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 21, Buffalo Bills 43.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: BUF 65%Our line: BUF -5.2
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -5.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.124Net EPA / play+0.242
-0.057 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.101 (4)
+0.067 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.141 (1)
43.9% (20)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 22. Off by 16.8 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
HIGH WIND
21 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
21 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@WASW3 2023 | BUF 37, WAS 3 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 5.2. The market has BUF at -7.5.
Buffalo Bills won, WAS 21, BUF 43. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.5 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.2, 2.7 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 37, WAS 3 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: WAS -0.124 against BUF +0.242.
