2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ BUF – Week 3 2021
WAS
BUF
WAS
AWAY
21@43
BUF +22
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 65%Projected margin: 7.1
BUF
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
7.1
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 22. Off by 14.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 14.5 points.
HIGH WIND
21 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -330 | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
67°F
WIND
21 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@WASW3 2023 | BUF 37, WAS 3 | BUF | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES