2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ JAX – Week 3 2021
ARI
JAX
ARI
AWAY
31@19
ARI +12
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: ARI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ARI 69%Projected margin: -9.4
ARI
PICK SIDE
-8.0
SPREAD
-9.4
PROJ MARGIN
-316
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected ARI by 9.4. Actual: 12 points. The model was within 2.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -8.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -316 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -360 | Won · +$0.32 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@ARIW12 2025 | JAX 27, ARI 24 | JAX | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES