Cardinals vs Jaguars – Week 3 2021
ARI
JAX
ARI
AWAY
31@19
ARI BY 12
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 31, Jacksonville Jaguars 19.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 69%Our line: ARI -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI -8.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -6.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.122Net EPA / play-0.206
+0.073 (9)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (26)
-0.049 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.118 (31)
46.8% (9)Offense success %44.0% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 12. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3787 yd · 24 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner752 yd · 15 TD
Chase Edmonds592 yd · 2 TD
Kyler Murray423 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk77 rec · 982 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@ARIW12 2025 | JAX 27, ARI 24 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs JAX
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 69% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project ARI by 6.6. The market has ARI at -8.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 31, JAX 19. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at -8.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 8.0 points.
In Week 3, the Arizona Cardinals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 5.0 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 27, ARI 24 in Week 12 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.122 against JAX -0.206.
