2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ KC – Week 3 2021
LAC
KC
LAC
AWAY
30@24
LAC +6
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
KC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: KC 61%Projected margin: 3.8
KC
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
3.8
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LAC won. Projected margin was 3.8 -- the model overestimated by 9.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -273 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
No noteworthy trends
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
Justin Herbert
QB
380.8SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
343.8SEASON PPR
Keenan Allen
WR
257.8SEASON PPR
KC
Patrick Mahomes
QB
361.7SEASON PPR
Tyreek Hill
WR
296.5SEASON PPR
Travis Kelce
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES