Chargers vs Chiefs – Week 3 2021
LAC
KC
LAC
AWAY
30@24
LAC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 3
2021 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 30, Kansas City Chiefs 24.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chargers, 1 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 61%Our line: KC -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.061Net EPA / play+0.119
+0.095 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.144 (1)
+0.033 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.025 (20)
47.6% (6)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LAC won. Projected margin was 3.6, the model overestimated by 9.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
HIGH WIND
19 MPH winds at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
No noteworthy trends
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
81°F
WIND
19 MPH
WINDY
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW6 2026 | LAC 6, KC 22 | KC | W |
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 3.6. The market has KC at -6.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 30, KC 24. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -6.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 55.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.8, 7.2 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, LAC 6, KC 22 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: LAC +0.061 against KC +0.119.
