Chargers vs Chiefs – Week 15 2025
LAC
KC
LAC
AWAY
16@13
LAC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 16, Kansas City Chiefs 13.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers, 4 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 61%Our line: KC -3.6
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.024 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.035 (11)
-0.083 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.020 (12)
43.1% (19)Offense success %44.5% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick misses. LAC takes it.
MISSED
Model picked KC but LAC won. Projected margin was 3.6, the model overestimated by 6.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW6 2026 | LAC 6, KC 22 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW18 2023 | KC 13, LAC 12 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 3.6. The market has KC at -5.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 16, KC 13. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -5.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 15, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.9, 4.4 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, LAC 6, KC 22 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.059 against KC +0.055.
