MIN @ DAL – Week 15 2025
MIN
DAL
MIN
AWAY
34@26
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: DAL 68%Our line: DAL -6.4
DAL
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.4
OUR LINE
-215
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.070
-0.116Offense EPA / play+0.097
-0.100Defense EPA / play+0.167
42.6%Offense success %46.6%
41.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but MIN won. Projected margin was 6.4, the model overestimated by 14.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIN | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +215 | -265 |
| Our fair price | +215 | -215 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DAL -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-1%
Both figures are for DAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5 SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1 SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
J.McCarthy1632 yd · 11 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason758 yd · 6 TD
A.Jones548 yd · 2 TD
J.McCarthy181 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson84 rec · 1048 yd · 2 TD
J.Addison42 rec · 610 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@MINW11 2022 | DAL 40, MIN 3 | MIN | L |
| DAL@MINW8 2021 | DAL 20, MIN 16 | DAL | W |
| DAL@MINW11 2020 | DAL 31, MIN 28 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 6.4. The market has DAL at -5.5.
The model projects 46.6 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 40, MIN 3 in Week 11 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.016 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
