Vikings vs Cowboys – Week 15 2025
MIN
DAL
MIN
AWAY
34@26
MIN BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 15
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 34, Dallas Cowboys 26.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 68%Our line: DAL -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.070
-0.116 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (5)
-0.100 (4)Defense EPA / play+0.167 (32)
42.6% (23)Offense success %46.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. MIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but MIN won. Projected margin was 6.4, the model overestimated by 14.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@MINW11 2022 | DAL 40, MIN 3 | MIN | L |
| DAL@MINW8 2021 | DAL 20, MIN 16 | DAL | W |
| DAL@MINW11 2020 | DAL 31, MIN 28 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 6.4. The market has DAL at -5.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 34, DAL 26. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -5.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 15, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 0.9 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Dallas Cowboys, DAL 40, MIN 3 in Week 11 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.016 against DAL -0.070.
