DAL @ MIN – Week 11 2020
DAL
MIN
DAL
AWAY
31@28
DAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 68%Our line: MIN -6.2
MIN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.2
OUR LINE
-209
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.098Net EPA / play-0.003
-0.038Offense EPA / play+0.095
+0.060Defense EPA / play+0.098
45.7%Offense success %49.2%
45.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A+-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DAL won. Projected margin was 6.2, the model overestimated by 9.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DAL | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +261 | -304 |
| Our fair price | +209 | -209 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIN -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
73%
DIFFERENCE
-5%
Both figures are for MIN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DAL
Amari Cooper
WR
236.8 SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
223.7 SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
217.7 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Andy Dalton2170 yd · 14 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Ezekiel Elliott979 yd · 6 TD
Tony Pollard435 yd · 4 TD
Andy Dalton114 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper92 rec · 1114 yd · 5 TD
CeeDee Lamb74 rec · 935 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@DALW15 2025 | MIN 34, DAL 26 | DAL | L |
| DAL@MINW11 2022 | DAL 40, MIN 3 | MIN | L |
| DAL@MINW8 2021 | DAL 20, MIN 16 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs MIN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project MIN by 6.2. The market has MIN at -7.0.
The model projects 45.2 combined points. The market total is 50.0.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 34, DAL 26 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Minnesota Vikings: DAL -0.098 against MIN -0.003.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
