2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DAL @ MIN – Week 11 2020
DAL
MIN
DAL
AWAY
31@28
DAL +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
MIN
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: MIN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIN 68%Projected margin: 7.3
MIN
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
7.3
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN A+-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but DAL won. Projected margin was 7.3 -- the model overestimated by 10.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 10.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -304 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DAL
Amari Cooper
WR
236.8SEASON PPR
Ezekiel Elliott
RB
223.7SEASON PPR
CeeDee Lamb
WR
217.7SEASON PPR
MIN
Dalvin Cook
RB
337.8SEASON PPR
Kirk Cousins
QB
306.2SEASON PPR
Justin Jefferson
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@DALW15 2025 | MIN 34, DAL 26 | DAL | L |
| DAL@MINW11 2022 | DAL 40, MIN 3 | MIN | L |
| DAL@MINW8 2021 | DAL 20, MIN 16 | DAL | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES