Chiefs vs Raiders – Week 11 2020
KC
LV
KC
AWAY
35@31
KC BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 35, Las Vegas Raiders 31.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 54%Our line: KC -1.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -1.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.138Net EPA / play-0.085
+0.184 (2)Offense EPA / play+0.045 (13)
+0.045 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.130 (29)
50.1% (3)Offense success %46.5% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 1.3. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 2.7 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@LVW4 2026 | KC 30, LV 27 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW18 2025 | KC 12, LV 14 | KC | L |
| LV@KCW7 2025 | LV 0, KC 31 | KC | W |
| LV@KCW13 2024 | LV 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LVW8 2024 | KC 27, LV 20 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs LV
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 54% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project KC by 1.3. The market has KC at -7.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 35, LV 31. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -7.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 11, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 56.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 10.2 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 30, LV 27 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.138 against LV -0.085.
