MIA @ DEN – Week 11 2020
MIA
DEN
MIA
AWAY
13@20
DEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 61%Our line: MIA -3.8
MIA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.8
OUR LINE
-156
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.007Offense EPA / play-0.104
-0.041Defense EPA / play+0.043
46.0%Offense success %38.8%
45.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but DEN won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -196 | +174 |
| Our fair price | -156 | +156 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -4.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
61%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
64%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
Mike Gesicki53 rec · 703 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@MIAW3 2023 | DEN 20, MIA 70 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs DEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.8. The market has MIA at -4.0.
The model projects 47.7 combined points. The market total is 46.0.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Miami Dolphins, DEN 20, MIA 70 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against DEN -0.147.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
