2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
MIA @ DEN – Week 11 2020
MIA
DEN
MIA
AWAY
13@20
DEN +7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER B
PICK: MIA
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: MIA 61%Projected margin: -4.7
MIA
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
-4.7
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but DEN won. Projected margin was 4.7 -- the model overestimated by 11.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | MIA market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -196 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3SEASON PPR
DEN
Melvin Gordon
RB
198.4SEASON PPR
Drew Lock
QB
181.3SEASON PPR
Tim Patrick
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@MIAW3 2023 | DEN 20, MIA 70 | MIA | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES