Dolphins vs Broncos – Week 11 2020
MIA
DEN
MIA
AWAY
13@20
DEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 13, Denver Broncos 20.
Going in, our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: MIA 61%Our line: MIA -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
MIA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIA -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.147
+0.007 (19)Offense EPA / play-0.104 (31)
-0.041 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.043 (18)
46.0% (13)Offense success %38.8% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIA but DEN won. Projected margin was 3.8, the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
45°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
MIA
DeVante Parker
WR
166.3 SEASON PPR
Myles Gaskin
RB
164.2 SEASON PPR
Mike Gesicki
TE
159.3 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Ryan Fitzpatrick2091 yd · 13 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Myles Gaskin584 yd · 3 TD
Salvon Ahmed319 yd · 3 TD
Matt Breida254 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DeVante Parker63 rec · 793 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@MIAW3 2023 | DEN 20, MIA 70 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs DEN
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.8. The market has MIA at -4.0.
Denver Broncos won, MIA 13, DEN 20. Our model had favored Miami Dolphins at 61% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Miami Dolphins at -4.0, meaning the book expects Miami Dolphins to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 11, the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 1.7 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Miami Dolphins, DEN 20, MIA 70 in Week 3 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.048 against DEN -0.147.
