DET @ CAR – Week 11 2020
DET
CAR
DET
AWAY
0@20
CAR BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: DET 52%Our line: DET -0.5
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-0.5
OUR LINE
-106
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.208Net EPA / play-0.073
-0.005Offense EPA / play+0.004
+0.203Defense EPA / play+0.077
44.3%Offense success %45.0%
51.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CAR won. Projected margin was 0.5, the model overestimated by 20.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DET | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -169 | +152 |
| Our fair price | -106 | +106 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DET -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
52%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
-10%
Both figures are for DET. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
Matthew Stafford
QB
260.6 SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
227.8 SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
189.8 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
Matthew Stafford4084 yd · 26 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Adrian Peterson604 yd · 7 TD
D'Andre Swift521 yd · 8 TD
Kerryon Johnson181 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Marvin Jones76 rec · 978 yd · 9 TD
T.J. Hockenson67 rec · 723 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DETW5 2023 | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET | W |
| DET@CARW16 2022 | DET 23, CAR 37 | DET | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 0.5. The market has DET at -3.0.
The model projects 46.4 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, CAR 24, DET 42 in Week 5 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Carolina Panthers: DET -0.208 against CAR -0.073.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
