Lions vs Panthers – Week 11 2020
DET
CAR
DET
AWAY
0@20
CAR BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Detroit Lions 0, Carolina Panthers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Lions, 4 Panthers.
Model confidence: DET 52%Our line: DET -0.5
ODDS
SPREAD
DET -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -0.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.208Net EPA / play-0.073
-0.005 (22)Offense EPA / play+0.004 (20)
+0.203 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.077 (24)
44.3% (21)Offense success %45.0% (19)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CAR won. Projected margin was 0.5, the model overestimated by 20.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@CARW4 2026 | DET 26, CAR 32 | DET | L |
| CAR@DETW5 2023 | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET | W |
| DET@CARW16 2022 | DET 23, CAR 37 | DET | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs CAR
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DET by 0.5. The market has DET at -3.0.
Carolina Panthers won, DET 0, CAR 20. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Detroit Lions at -3.0, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 11, the Detroit Lions were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Carolina Panthers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 0.6 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Carolina Panthers, DET 26, CAR 32 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Carolina Panthers: DET -0.208 against CAR -0.073.
