2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DET @ CAR – Week 11 2020
DET
CAR
DET
AWAY
0@20
CAR +20
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DET
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DET 52%Projected margin: -2.0
DET
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-2.0
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DET C-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DET but CAR won. Projected margin was 2.0 -- the model overestimated by 22.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -169 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
7 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DET
Matthew Stafford
QB
260.6SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
227.8SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
189.8SEASON PPR
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@DETW5 2023 | CAR 24, DET 42 | DET | W |
| DET@CARW16 2022 | DET 23, CAR 37 | DET | L |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES