2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ IND – Week 11 2020
GB
IND
GB
AWAY
31@34
IND +3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 52%Projected margin: -0.9
GB
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
-0.9
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but IND won. Projected margin was 0.9 -- the model overestimated by 3.9 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points -- a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +109 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
GB
Aaron Rodgers
QB
383.3SEASON PPR
Davante Adams
WR
358.4SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
258.9SEASON PPR
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@GBW2 2024 | IND 10, GB 16 | GB | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES