Packers vs Colts – Week 11 2020
GB
IND
GB
AWAY
31@34
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 31, Indianapolis Colts 34.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 52%Our line: GB -0.7
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -0.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.196Net EPA / play+0.109
+0.219 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.079 (12)
+0.022 (14)Defense EPA / play-0.030 (9)
50.7% (1)Offense success %46.6% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB C-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but IND won. Projected margin was 0.7, the model overestimated by 3.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Cold Weather 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs IND
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project GB by 0.7. The market has GB at +1.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, GB 31, IND 34. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 11, the Green Bay Packers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 52.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.9, 3.1 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, IND 10, GB 16 in Week 2 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.196 against IND +0.109.
