Falcons vs Saints – Week 11 2020
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
9@24
NO BY 15
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
Caesars Superdome · New Orleans, LA
NO
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 9, New Orleans Saints 24.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints.
Model confidence: NO 67%Our line: NO -5.8
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -5.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.042Net EPA / play+0.177
+0.021 (16)Offense EPA / play+0.093 (9)
+0.063 (21)Defense EPA / play-0.084 (4)
43.2% (26)Offense success %47.6% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 5.8. Actual: 15. Off by 9.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4 SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5 SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1 SEASON PPR
NO
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan4581 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Todd Gurley678 yd · 9 TD
Brian Hill465 yd · 1 TD
Ito Smith268 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Calvin Ridley90 rec · 1374 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@NOW4 2026 | ATL 45, NO 24 | ATL | W |
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs NO
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project NO by 5.8. The market has NO at -3.5.
New Orleans Saints won, ATL 9, NO 24. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -3.5, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 11, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 4.4 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 45, NO 24 in Week 4 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, New Orleans Saints: ATL -0.042 against NO +0.177.
