2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ATL @ NO – Week 11 2020
ATL
NO
ATL
AWAY
9@24
NO +15
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
NO
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: NO 67%Projected margin: 7.3
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.5
SPREAD
7.3
PROJ MARGIN
-165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked NO. Projected margin: 7.3. Actual: 15. Off by 7.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.5 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -181 | Won · +$0.61 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NO
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
ATL
Matt Ryan
QB
282.4SEASON PPR
Calvin Ridley
WR
281.5SEASON PPR
Russell Gage
WR
181.1SEASON PPR
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
377.8SEASON PPR
Drew Brees
QB
209.5SEASON PPR
Emmanuel Sanders
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@ATLW18 2025 | NO 17, ATL 19 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW12 2025 | ATL 24, NO 10 | ATL | W |
| ATL@NOW10 2024 | ATL 17, NO 20 | ATL | L |
| NO@ATLW4 2024 | NO 24, ATL 26 | NO | L |
| ATL@NOW18 2023 | ATL 17, NO 48 | NO | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES