2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ HOU – Week 11 2020
NE
HOU
NE
AWAY
20@27
HOU +7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: NE 56%Projected margin: -3.8
NE
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-3.8
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but HOU won. Projected margin was 3.8 -- the model overestimated by 10.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | NE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +132 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
NE
Cam Newton
QB
261.0SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
142.5SEASON PPR
James White
RB
116.6SEASON PPR
HOU
Deshaun Watson
QB
369.3SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
232.0SEASON PPR
Will Fuller
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NEW6 2024 | HOU 41, NE 21 | HOU | W |
| NE@HOUW5 2021 | NE 25, HOU 22 | NE | W |
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES