Patriots vs Texans – Week 11 2020
NE
HOU
NE
AWAY
20@27
HOU BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 20, Houston Texans 27.
Going in, our model had favored New England Patriots at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Patriots, 1 Texans.
Model confidence: NE 56%Our line: NE -2.1
ODDS
SPREAD
NE -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -2.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
-0.076Net EPA / play-0.071
-0.004 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.099 (7)
+0.071 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.170 (31)
46.1% (12)Offense success %47.6% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
NE C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked NE but HOU won. Projected margin was 2.1, the model overestimated by 9.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Cam Newton2657 yd · 8 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Damien Harris691 yd · 2 TD
Cam Newton592 yd · 12 TD
Sony Michel449 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers59 rec · 729 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@NEW6 2024 | HOU 41, NE 21 | HOU | W |
| NE@HOUW5 2021 | NE 25, HOU 22 | NE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs HOU
Our model takes New England Patriots at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NE by 2.1. The market has NE at -2.5.
Houston Texans won, NE 20, HOU 27. Our model had favored New England Patriots at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has New England Patriots at -2.5, meaning the book expects New England Patriots to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 11, the New England Patriots were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 1.5 below the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 41, NE 21 in Week 6 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Houston Texans: NE -0.076 against HOU -0.071.
