PIT @ JAX – Week 11 2020
PIT
JAX
PIT
AWAY
27@3
PIT BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
Model confidence: PIT 73%Our line: PIT -8.2
PIT
PICK SIDE
-11.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.2
OUR LINE
-268
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.204
+0.010Offense EPA / play-0.059
-0.118Defense EPA / play+0.145
43.2%Offense success %41.5%
38.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 24. Off by 15.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PIT | JAX |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -475 | +386 |
| Our fair price | -268 | +268 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD PIT -11.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.21
OUR NUMBER
73%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
80%
DIFFERENCE
-7%
Both figures are for PIT. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
Chase Claypool62 rec · 873 yd · 9 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@PITW8 2023 | JAX 20, PIT 10 | PIT | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs JAX
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PIT by 8.2. The market has PIT at -11.0.
The model projects 49.2 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 20, PIT 10 in Week 8 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.128 against JAX -0.204.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
