Steelers vs Jaguars – Week 11 2020
PIT
JAX
PIT
AWAY
27@3
PIT BY 24
FINAL · WEEK 11
2020 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 27, Jacksonville Jaguars 3.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Steelers, 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: PIT 73%Our line: PIT -8.2
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -11.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -8.2
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
73%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 11
+0.128Net EPA / play-0.204
+0.010 (17)Offense EPA / play-0.059 (28)
-0.118 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.145 (30)
43.2% (25)Offense success %41.5% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 8.2. Actual: 24. Off by 15.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2 SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1 SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
JAX
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Pittsburgh SteelersPASSING
Ben Roethlisberger3803 yd · 33 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner721 yd · 6 TD
Benny Snell368 yd · 4 TD
Anthony McFarland113 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Diontae Johnson88 rec · 923 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 11
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@PITW8 2023 | JAX 20, PIT 10 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 11 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs JAX
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 73% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project PIT by 8.2. The market has PIT at -11.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 27, JAX 3. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -11.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 11.0 points.
In Week 11, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.2, 2.2 above the market.
Week 11 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 20, PIT 10 in Week 8 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT +0.128 against JAX -0.204.
