2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ PIT – Week 8 2023
JAX
PIT
JAX
AWAY
20@10
JAX +10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER C
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 50%Projected margin: -0.3
PIT
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
-0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but JAX won. Projected margin was 0.3 -- the model overestimated by 9.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +114 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
JAX
Travis Etienne
RB
282.4SEASON PPR
Trevor Lawrence
QB
262.5SEASON PPR
Evan Engram
TE
230.3SEASON PPR
PIT
George Pickens
WR
208.8SEASON PPR
Jaylen Warren
RB
196.4SEASON PPR
Najee Harris
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@JAXW11 2020 | PIT 27, JAX 3 | PIT | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES