Jaguars vs Steelers – Week 8 2023
JAX
PIT
JAX
AWAY
20@10
JAX BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Pittsburgh Steelers 10.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars.
Model confidence: PIT 50%Our line: PIT +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.034Net EPA / play-0.013
-0.070 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.073 (23)
-0.036 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (9)
42.1% (15)Offense success %42.0% (17)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick misses. JAX takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but JAX won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
PIT
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
58°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@JAXW11 2020 | PIT 27, JAX 3 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 0.0. The market has PIT at +2.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, JAX 20, PIT 10. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 8, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.9, 1.9 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 27, JAX 3 in Week 11 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: JAX -0.034 against PIT -0.013.
