Jets vs Giants – Week 8 2023
NYJ
NYG
NYJ
AWAY
13@10
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 13, New York Giants 10.
Going in, our model had favored New York Jets at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jets, 3 Giants.
Model confidence: NYJ 60%Our line: NYJ -3.5
ODDS
SPREAD
NYJ -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYJ -3.5
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYJ · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.133Net EPA / play-0.155
-0.252 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.174 (29)
-0.119 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.019 (19)
35.0% (32)Offense success %37.9% (30)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYJ by 3.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NYG
Our model takes New York Jets at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYJ by 3.5. The market has NYJ at -3.0.
New York Jets won, NYJ 13, NYG 10. Our model had favored New York Jets at 60% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Jets at -3.0, meaning the book expects New York Jets to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 8, the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.5, 8.5 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Jets: NYJ -0.133 against NYG -0.155.
