NYJ @ NYG – Week 8 2023
NYJ
NYG
NYJ
AWAY
13@10
NYJ BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: NYJ 60%Our line: NYJ -3.5
NYJ
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.5
OUR LINE
-152
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.133Net EPA / play-0.155
-0.252Offense EPA / play-0.174
-0.119Defense EPA / play-0.019
35.0%Offense success %37.9%
37.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYJ B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYJ by 3.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 8 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NYJ | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -162 | +136 |
| Our fair price | -152 | +152 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYJ -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for NYJ. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
NYG
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
52°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NYJ
Breece Hall
RB
290.5 SEASON PPR
Garrett Wilson
WR
213.2 SEASON PPR
Tyler Conklin
TE
123.1 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
Breece Hall994 yd · 5 TD
Dalvin Cook214 yd · 0 TD
Zach Wilson211 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
Tyler Conklin61 rec · 621 yd · 0 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Jets at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYJ by 3.5. The market has NYJ at -3.0.
The model projects 43.5 combined points. The market total is 35.0.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New York Jets: NYJ -0.133 against NYG -0.155.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
