Falcons vs Titans – Week 8 2023
ATL
TEN
ATL
AWAY
23@28
TEN BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 23, Tennessee Titans 28.
Going in, our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 3 Titans.
Model confidence: ATL 68%Our line: ATL -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ATL -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ATL -6.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ATL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.040Net EPA / play-0.055
-0.099 (26)Offense EPA / play-0.047 (18)
-0.059 (11)Defense EPA / play+0.007 (23)
41.1% (20)Offense success %39.7% (26)
GAME NARRATIVE
ATL B-tier pick misses. TEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ATL but TEN won. Projected margin was 6.1, the model overestimated by 11.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
No noteworthy trends
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
77°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Desmond Ridder2836 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs TEN
Our model takes Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ATL by 6.1. The market has ATL at -2.5.
Tennessee Titans won, ATL 23, TEN 28. Our model had favored Atlanta Falcons at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Atlanta Falcons at -2.5, meaning the book expects Atlanta Falcons to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 8, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 35.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.7, 8.7 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Atlanta Falcons: ATL -0.040 against TEN -0.055.
