2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TB @ BUF – Week 8 2023
TB
BUF
TB
AWAY
18@24
BUF +6
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BUF 70%Projected margin: 6.2
BUF
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
6.2
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 6.2. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.2 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -485 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TB
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
10 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TB
Mike Evans
WR
282.5SEASON PPR
Baker Mayfield
QB
274.1SEASON PPR
Rachaad White
RB
267.9SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
392.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
273.8SEASON PPR
James Cook
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@BUFW11 2025 | TB 32, BUF 44 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TBW14 2021 | BUF 27, TB 33 | TB | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES