Buccaneers vs Bills – Week 8 2023
TB
BUF
TB
AWAY
18@24
BUF BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 8
2023 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18, Buffalo Bills 24.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Buccaneers, 3 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 70%Our line: BUF -6.9
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -6.9
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
+0.007Net EPA / play+0.182
-0.017 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.108 (2)
-0.024 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.074 (8)
39.6% (27)Offense success %49.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 6.9. Actual: 6 points. The model was within 0.9 points of the real margin.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
BUF
Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
66°F
WIND
10 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@BUFW11 2025 | TB 32, BUF 44 | BUF | W |
| BUF@TBW14 2021 | BUF 27, TB 33 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.9. The market has BUF at -10.0.
Buffalo Bills won, TB 18, BUF 24. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -10.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 8, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 3.7 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Buffalo Bills, TB 32, BUF 44 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Buffalo Bills: TB +0.007 against BUF +0.182.
