NFC South · #20 NET EPA · 2025 SEASON
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
FOR 47-24 (66%)VS 18-12 (60%)ATS 30-40 (43%)380–411 PTS
FOR is our pick record when we backed this team; VS is our record when we picked against them. ATS is the team's record against the spread.
SEASON OPENER · WEEK 1
@
Cincinnati BengalsSUN 1:00 PM
VIEW MATCHUP →@Cincinnati BengalsKEY INSIGHTS
DATA-DRIVEN ANALYSISNet EPA dropped -0.137 from 2024, a notable regression.
Elite red zone efficiency, scores touchdowns on 76.2% of red zone trips.
Finished 2025 outside the picture, 0.0% playoff probability in that season's simulations. See the 2026 projection for this year's outlook.
EPA PERFORMANCE
2025 SEASON FINAL-0.022
NET EPA/PLAY
-0.009
OFF EPA/PLAY
+0.013
DEF EPA/PLAY
-0.026
PASS EPA/PLAY
+0.014
RUSH EPA/PLAY
EPA TREND
1999–2025 · 27 SEASONS+0.007
+0.098
+0.056
+0.172
+0.091
+0.026
+0.047
-0.192
+0.085
+0.054
-0.204
+0.045
-0.234
-0.001
-0.104
-0.131
-0.023
-0.005
-0.054
-0.069
+0.081
+0.170
+0.217
-0.013
+0.007
+0.115
-0.022
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| SEASON | NET EPA | OFF EPA | DEF EPA | PTS FOR | PTS AGN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | -0.022 | -0.009 | +0.013 | 380 | 411 |
| 2024 | +0.115 | +0.130 | +0.015 | 502 | 385 |
| 2023 | +0.007 | -0.017 | -0.024 | 348 | 325 |
| 2022 | -0.013 | -0.038 | -0.025 | 313 | 358 |
| 2021 | +0.217 | +0.137 | -0.080 | 511 | 353 |
| 2020 | +0.170 | +0.119 | -0.051 | 492 | 355 |
| 2019 | +0.081 | -0.005 | -0.086 | 458 | 449 |
| 2018 | -0.069 | +0.038 | +0.107 | 396 | 464 |
| 2017 | -0.054 | -0.004 | +0.051 | 335 | 382 |
| 2016 | -0.005 | -0.001 | +0.004 | 354 | 369 |
| 2015 | -0.023 | +0.011 | +0.034 | 342 | 417 |
| 2014 | -0.131 | -0.105 | +0.026 | 277 | 410 |
| 2013 | -0.104 | -0.096 | +0.008 | 288 | 389 |
| 2012 | -0.001 | +0.024 | +0.024 | 389 | 394 |
| 2011 | -0.234 | -0.111 | +0.123 | 287 | 494 |
| 2010 | +0.045 | +0.039 | -0.006 | 341 | 318 |
| 2009 | -0.204 | -0.158 | +0.047 | 244 | 400 |
| 2008 | +0.054 | -0.026 | -0.080 | 361 | 323 |
| 2007 | +0.085 | -0.010 | -0.095 | 334 | 270 |
| 2006 | -0.192 | -0.188 | +0.004 | 211 | 353 |
| 2005 | +0.047 | -0.062 | -0.108 | 300 | 274 |
| 2004 | +0.026 | -0.071 | -0.097 | 301 | 304 |
| 2003 | +0.091 | -0.030 | -0.121 | 301 | 264 |
| 2002 | +0.172 | -0.049 | -0.221 | 346 | 196 |
| 2001 | +0.056 | -0.036 | -0.091 | 324 | 280 |
| 2000 | +0.098 | -0.022 | -0.120 | 388 | 269 |
| 1999 | +0.007 | -0.153 | -0.161 | 270 | 235 |
COACHING TENDENCIES
FULL RANKINGS →PASS RATE
56.4%
EARLY DOWN PASS
52.6%
SHOTGUN RATE
65.1%
NO HUDDLE
6.2%
4TH DOWN GO
23.0%
4TH DOWN CONV
44.8%
3RD DOWN CONV
41.4%
RED ZONE TD
76.2%
GOAL-TO-GO TD
90.9%
2-MIN DRILL EPA
+0.014
PTS/DRIVE
1.6
PLAYS/DRIVE
6.1
COACHING TREND
2020–2025 · 6 SEASONS| SEASON | PASS% | 4TH GO% | 3RD CONV% | RZ TD% | PTS/DRV | HALF ADJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 56.4% | 23.0% | 41.4% | 76.2% | 1.6 | +0.009 |
| 2024 | 56.5% | 14.9% | 50.7% | 100.0% | 2.3 | +0.037 |
| 2023 | 59.4% | 14.4% | 42.2% | 58.3% | 1.4 | +0.092 |
| 2022 | 67.7% | 19.7% | 37.9% | 80.0% | 1.2 | -0.066 |
| 2021 | 67.2% | 15.1% | 47.9% | 70.8% | 2.3 | -0.061 |
| 2020 | 65.2% | 14.1% | 44.4% | 91.7% | 2.3 | -0.020 |
TOP PLAYERS
ALL LEADERS →| PLAYER | POS | GP | PASS YD | RUSH YD | REC YD | TD | PPR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 B.Mayfield | QB | 17 | 3,693 | 382 | — | 27 | 271.9 |
| R.White | RB | 17 | — | 572 | 218 | 4 | 143.0 |
| B.Irving | RB | 10 | — | 588 | 277 | 4 | 138.5 |
| E.Egbuka | WR | 17 | — | 9 | 938 | 6 | 195.7 |
| T.Johnson | WR | 15 | — | 22 | 322 | 5 | 92.4 |
| M.Evans | WR | 8 | — | — | 368 | 3 | 84.8 |
| C.Otton | TE | 15 | — | — | 572 | 1 | 122.2 |
HOME / AWAY
GAME RESULTS BY LOCATION · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
30-20
60% WIN RATE
AWAY
29-22
57% WIN RATE
NOPUNT PICK RECORD
2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS47-24
PICKS FOR
66%
FOR ACCURACY
18-12
PICKS AGAINST
60%
AGAINST ACCURACY
101
GAMES TRACKED
ATS SPLITS
WHEN WE PICK TB · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONSHOME
16-24
40.0%
AWAY
14-16
46.7%
FAVORITE
26-36
41.9%
UNDERDOG
4-4
50.0%
S TIER
2-2
A+ TIER
8-6
A TIER
1-3
B TIER
15-19
C TIER
4-10
BY OPPONENT
MIN 2 PICKS FOR TB · 2020–2026 · 7 SEASONS
vs ARI2-0
vs NYJ2-0
vs LAC2-0
vs LV2-0
vs NYG3-0
vs CAR10-2
vs DAL2-1
vs CHI2-1
vs ATL6-4
vs NO5-5
vs NE1-1
vs WAS1-1
vs LAR1-1
vs PHI1-2
PICK HISTORY
NEWEST FIRST| Week | Matchup | Our Pick | Tier | Conf. | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026·W18 | TB @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | FCST | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W17 | LAR @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | LAR | FCST | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W16 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 67% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W15 | NO @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | FCST | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W14 | TB @ BALSUN 1:00 PM | BAL | FCST | 65% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W13 | LAC @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | FCST | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W12 | CAR @ TBMON 8:15 PM | TB | FCST | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W11 | TB @ DETSUN 1:00 PM | DET | FCST | 63% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W9 | TB @ CHISUN 8:20 PM | CHI | FCST | 68% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W8 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | FCST | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W7 | TB @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | CAR | C | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W6 | PIT @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | PIT | C | 62% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W5 | TB @ DALTHU 8:15 PM | DAL | C | 60% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W4 | GB @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | C | 59% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W3 | MIN @ TBSUN 4:05 PM | MIN | C | 58% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W2 | CLE @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 69% | — | PENDING |
| 2026·W1 | TB @ CINSUN 1:00 PM | CIN | B | 61% | — | PENDING |
| 2025·W18 | CAR @ TBSAT 4:30 PM | TB | C | 60% | CAR 14–16 TB | WIN |
| 2025·W17 | TB @ MIASUN 1:00 PM | MIA | C | 61% | TB 17–20 MIA | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W16 | TB @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | TB | C | 60% | TB 20–23 CAR | LOSS |
| 2025·W15 | ATL @ TBTHU 8:15 PM | TB | B | 68% | ATL 29–28 TB | LOSS |
| 2025·W14 | NO @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 76% | NO 24–20 TB | LOSS |
| 2025·W13 | ARI @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A | 72% | ARI 17–20 TB | WIN |
| 2025·W12 | TB @ LARSUN 8:20 PM | LAR | A+ | 74% | TB 7–34 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W11 | TB @ BUFSUN 1:00 PM | BUF | B | 65% | TB 32–44 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W10 | NE @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 67% | NE 28–23 TB | LOSS |
| 2025·W8 | TB @ NOSUN 4:05 PM | TB | B | 70% | TB 23–3 NO | WIN |
| 2025·W7 | TB @ DETMON 7:00 PM | DET | B | 65% | TB 9–24 DET | WIN (vs) |
| 2025·W6 | SF @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | B | 67% | SF 19–30 TB | WIN |
| 2025·W5 | TB @ SEASUN 4:05 PM | SEA | B | 61% | TB 38–35 SEA | LOSS (vs) |
| 2025·W4 | PHI @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | C | 50% | PHI 31–25 TB | LOSS |
| 2025·W3 | NYJ @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | S | 80% | NYJ 27–29 TB | WIN |
| 2025·W2 | TB @ HOUMON 7:00 PM | TB | B | 69% | TB 20–19 HOU | WIN |
| 2025·W1 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 66% | TB 23–20 ATL | WIN |
| 2024·W18 | NO @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 76% | NO 19–27 TB | WIN |
| 2024·W17 | CAR @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 77% | CAR 14–48 TB | WIN |
| 2024·W16 | TB @ DALSUN 8:20 PM | TB | C | 62% | TB 24–26 DAL | LOSS |
| 2024·W15 | TB @ LACSUN 4:25 PM | TB | C | 58% | TB 40–17 LAC | WIN |
| 2024·W14 | LV @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 72% | LV 13–28 TB | WIN |
| 2024·W13 | TB @ CARSUN 4:05 PM | TB | B | 66% | TB 26–23 CAR | WIN |
| 2024·W12 | TB @ NYGSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 64% | TB 30–7 NYG | WIN |
| 2024·W10 | SF @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | SF | B | 63% | SF 23–20 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W9 | TB @ KCMON 8:15 PM | KC | A+ | 73% | TB 24–30 KC | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W8 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 61% | ATL 31–26 TB | LOSS |
| 2024·W7 | BAL @ TBMON 8:15 PM | BAL | B | 63% | BAL 41–31 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W6 | TB @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | NO | B | 62% | TB 51–27 NO | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W5 | TB @ ATLTHU 8:15 PM | ATL | C | 59% | TB 30–36 ATL | WIN (vs) |
| 2024·W4 | PHI @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | PHI | C | 60% | PHI 16–33 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W3 | DEN @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 68% | DEN 26–7 TB | LOSS |
| 2024·W2 | TB @ DETSUN 1:00 PM | DET | B | 65% | TB 20–16 DET | LOSS (vs) |
| 2024·W1 | WAS @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | A+ | 73% | WAS 20–37 TB | WIN |
| 2023·W18 | TB @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 69% | TB 9–0 CAR | WIN |
| 2023·W17 | NO @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 61% | NO 23–13 TB | LOSS |
| 2023·W16 | JAX @ TBSUN 4:05 PM | TB | B | 61% | JAX 12–30 TB | WIN |
| 2023·W15 | TB @ GBSUN 1:00 PM | GB | B | 63% | TB 34–20 GB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W14 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | ATL | B | 62% | TB 29–25 ATL | LOSS (vs) |
| 2023·W13 | CAR @ TBSUN 4:05 PM | TB | B | 70% | CAR 18–21 TB | WIN |
| 2023·W12 | TB @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | B | 61% | TB 20–27 IND | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W11 | TB @ SFSUN 4:05 PM | SF | A | 72% | TB 14–27 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W10 | TEN @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 68% | TEN 6–20 TB | WIN |
| 2023·W9 | TB @ HOUSUN 1:00 PM | HOU | C | 50% | TB 37–39 HOU | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W8 | TB @ BUFTHU 8:15 PM | BUF | B | 70% | TB 18–24 BUF | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W7 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 67% | ATL 16–13 TB | LOSS |
| 2023·W6 | DET @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | DET | C | 50% | DET 20–6 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2023·W4 | TB @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | TB | C | 60% | TB 26–9 NO | WIN |
| 2023·W3 | PHI @ TBMON 7:15 PM | TB | C | 50% | PHI 25–11 TB | LOSS |
| 2023·W2 | CHI @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 79% | CHI 17–27 TB | WIN |
| 2023·W1 | TB @ MINSUN 1:00 PM | MIN | C | 60% | TB 20–17 MIN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W18 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 63% | TB 17–30 ATL | LOSS |
| 2022·W17 | CAR @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 65% | CAR 24–30 TB | WIN |
| 2022·W16 | TB @ ARISUN 8:20 PM | TB | B | 66% | TB 19–16 ARI | WIN |
| 2022·W15 | CIN @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | CIN | B | 61% | CIN 34–23 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W14 | TB @ SFSUN 4:25 PM | SF | B | 63% | TB 7–35 SF | WIN (vs) |
| 2022·W13 | NO @ TBMON 8:15 PM | TB | B | 67% | NO 16–17 TB | WIN |
| 2022·W12 | TB @ CLESUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 67% | TB 17–23 CLE | LOSS |
| 2022·W10 | SEA @ TBSUN 9:30 AM | SEA | C | 59% | SEA 16–21 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2022·W9 | LAR @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | C | 57% | LAR 13–16 TB | WIN |
| 2022·W8 | BAL @ TBTHU 8:15 PM | TB | B | 59% | BAL 27–22 TB | LOSS |
| 2022·W7 | TB @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 77% | TB 3–21 CAR | LOSS |
| 2022·W6 | TB @ PITSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A | 71% | TB 18–20 PIT | LOSS |
| 2022·W5 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 69% | ATL 15–21 TB | WIN |
| 2022·W4 | KC @ TBSUN 8:20 PM | TB | C | 56% | KC 41–31 TB | LOSS |
| 2022·W3 | GB @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | B | 62% | GB 14–12 TB | LOSS |
| 2022·W2 | TB @ NOSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 65% | TB 20–10 NO | WIN |
| 2022·W1 | TB @ DALSUN 8:20 PM | TB | C | 60% | TB 19–3 DAL | WIN |
| 2021·W18 | CAR @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | S | 75% | CAR 17–41 TB | WIN |
| 2021·W17 | TB @ NYJSUN 1:00 PM | TB | S | 71% | TB 28–24 NYJ | WIN |
| 2021·W16 | TB @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 67% | TB 32–6 CAR | WIN |
| 2021·W15 | NO @ TBSUN 8:20 PM | TB | B | 63% | NO 9–0 TB | LOSS |
| 2021·W14 | BUF @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | B | 56% | BUF 27–33 TB | WIN |
| 2021·W13 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 66% | TB 30–17 ATL | WIN |
| 2021·W12 | TB @ INDSUN 1:00 PM | IND | B | 53% | TB 38–31 IND | LOSS (vs) |
| 2021·W11 | NYG @ TBMON 8:15 PM | TB | A+ | 65% | NYG 10–30 TB | WIN |
| 2021·W10 | TB @ WASSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A | 68% | TB 19–29 WAS | LOSS |
| 2021·W8 | TB @ NOSUN 4:25 PM | TB | C | 53% | TB 27–36 NO | LOSS |
| 2021·W7 | CHI @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | TB | B | 64% | CHI 3–38 TB | WIN |
| 2021·W6 | TB @ PHITHU 8:20 PM | TB | A+ | 67% | TB 28–22 PHI | WIN |
| 2021·W5 | MIA @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 62% | MIA 17–45 TB | WIN |
| 2021·W4 | TB @ NESUN 8:20 PM | TB | B | 57% | TB 19–17 NE | WIN |
| 2021·W3 | TB @ LARSUN 4:25 PM | LAR | C | 51% | TB 24–34 LAR | WIN (vs) |
| 2021·W2 | ATL @ TBSUN 4:05 PM | TB | S | 69% | ATL 25–48 TB | WIN |
| 2021·W1 | DAL @ TBTHU 8:20 PM | TB | A+ | 63% | DAL 29–31 TB | WIN |
| 2020·W17 | ATL @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | A | 66% | ATL 27–44 TB | WIN |
| 2020·W16 | TB @ DETSAT 1:00 PM | TB | A+ | 66% | TB 47–7 DET | WIN |
| 2020·W15 | TB @ ATLSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 57% | TB 31–27 ATL | WIN |
| 2020·W14 | MIN @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | MIN | C | 52% | MIN 14–26 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W12 | KC @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | KC | B | 58% | KC 27–24 TB | WIN (vs) |
| 2020·W11 | LAR @ TBMON 8:15 PM | TB | C | 51% | LAR 27–24 TB | LOSS |
| 2020·W10 | TB @ CARSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 61% | TB 46–23 CAR | WIN |
| 2020·W9 | NO @ TBSUN 8:20 PM | TB | C | 53% | NO 38–3 TB | LOSS |
| 2020·W8 | TB @ NYGMON 8:15 PM | TB | A+ | 65% | TB 25–23 NYG | WIN |
| 2020·W7 | TB @ LVSUN 4:05 PM | TB | C | 55% | TB 45–20 LV | WIN |
| 2020·W6 | GB @ TBSUN 4:25 PM | GB | B | 58% | GB 10–38 TB | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W5 | TB @ CHITHU 8:20 PM | TB | C | 52% | TB 19–20 CHI | LOSS |
| 2020·W4 | LAC @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 58% | LAC 31–38 TB | WIN |
| 2020·W3 | TB @ DENSUN 4:25 PM | DEN | C | 48% | TB 28–10 DEN | LOSS (vs) |
| 2020·W2 | CAR @ TBSUN 1:00 PM | TB | B | 60% | CAR 17–31 TB | WIN |
| 2020·W1 | TB @ NOSUN 4:25 PM | NO | A+ | 63% | TB 23–34 NO | WIN (vs) |