Saints vs Buccaneers – Week 15 2021
NO
TB
NO
AWAY
9@0
NO BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 9, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Saints, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 63%Our line: TB -4.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -11.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -4.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.035Net EPA / play+0.217
-0.074 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.137 (2)
-0.109 (2)Defense EPA / play-0.080 (4)
40.6% (28)Offense success %49.4% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but NO won. Projected margin was 4.4, the model overestimated by 13.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Jameis Winston1170 yd · 14 TD · 3 INT
RECEIVING
Marquez Callaway46 rec · 698 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 4.4. The market has TB at -11.5.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 9, TB 0. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -11.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 11.5 points.
In Week 15, the New Orleans Saints were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.3 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New Orleans Saints, NO 24, TB 20 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: NO +0.035 against TB +0.217.
