2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ TB – Week 15 2021
NO
TB
NO
AWAY
9@0
NO +9
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 63%Projected margin: 4.5
TB
PICK SIDE
-11.5
SPREAD
4.5
PROJ MARGIN
-523
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. NO takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but NO won. Projected margin was 4.5 -- the model overestimated by 13.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -11.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -523 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -518 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
TB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 3-6 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
75°F
WIND
0 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
NO
Alvin Kamara
RB
234.7SEASON PPR
Marquez Callaway
WR
151.8SEASON PPR
Taysom Hill
TE
121.7SEASON PPR
TB
Tom Brady
QB
374.7SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
262.5SEASON PPR
Leonard Fournette
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NO@TBW14 2025 | NO 24, TB 20 | TB | L |
| TB@NOW8 2025 | TB 23, NO 3 | TB | W |
| NO@TBW18 2024 | NO 19, TB 27 | TB | W |
| TB@NOW6 2024 | TB 51, NO 27 | NO | L |
| NO@TBW17 2023 | NO 23, TB 13 | TB | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES