2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CAR @ BUF – Week 15 2021
CAR
BUF
CAR
AWAY
14@31
BUF +17
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER B
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 64%Projected margin: 6.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-14.0
SPREAD
6.0
PROJ MARGIN
-750
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 6.0. Actual: 17. Off by 11.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
COLD GAME
30°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -14.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -750 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -739 | Won · +$0.13 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
30°F
WIND
8 MPH
COLD GAME
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
237.5SEASON PPR
Sam Darnold
QB
157.3SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
138.5SEASON PPR
BUF
Josh Allen
QB
402.6SEASON PPR
Stefon Diggs
WR
285.5SEASON PPR
Devin Singletary
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@CARW8 2025 | BUF 40, CAR 9 | BUF | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES