Panthers vs Bills – Week 15 2021
CAR
BUF
CAR
AWAY
14@31
BUF BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 14, Buffalo Bills 31.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Panthers, 1 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 64%Our line: BUF -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -14.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.093Net EPA / play+0.242
-0.138 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.101 (4)
-0.044 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.141 (1)
40.9% (27)Offense success %47.7% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 17. Off by 12.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
COLD GAME
30°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
BUF
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
30°F
WIND
8 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@CARW8 2025 | BUF 40, CAR 9 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.8. The market has BUF at -14.0.
Buffalo Bills won, CAR 14, BUF 31. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -14.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 14.0 points.
In Week 15, the Carolina Panthers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 3.1 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 40, CAR 9 in Week 8 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Buffalo Bills: CAR -0.093 against BUF +0.242.
