Titans vs Steelers – Week 15 2021
TEN
PIT
TEN
AWAY
13@19
PIT BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 13, Pittsburgh Steelers 19.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 6 Titans.
Model confidence: TEN 57%Our line: TEN -2.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -2.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.055Net EPA / play-0.090
+0.022 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.074 (25)
-0.033 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.016 (19)
44.6% (15)Offense success %39.1% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN B-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TEN but PIT won. Projected margin was 2.4, the model overestimated by 8.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
COLD GAME
32°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
32°F
WIND
11 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill3734 yd · 21 TD · 14 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@PITW9 2023 | TEN 16, PIT 20 | PIT | W |
| PIT@TENW7 2020 | PIT 27, TEN 24 | TEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs PIT
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TEN by 2.4. The market has TEN at +1.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, TEN 13, PIT 19. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tennessee Titans at +1.0, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 15, the Tennessee Titans were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.2, 3.2 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, TEN 16, PIT 20 in Week 9 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN +0.055 against PIT -0.090.
