2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ DET – Week 15 2021
ARI
DET
ARI
AWAY
12@30
DET +18
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
DET
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: ARI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: ARI 70%Projected margin: -9.7
ARI
PICK SIDE
-13.0
SPREAD
-9.7
PROJ MARGIN
-649
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but DET won. Projected margin was 9.7 -- the model overestimated by 27.7 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -13.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | -649 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -634 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6SEASON PPR
DET
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR
227.3SEASON PPR
D'Andre Swift
RB
208.9SEASON PPR
Jared Goff
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@ARIW3 2024 | DET 20, ARI 13 | DET | W |
| DET@ARIW3 2020 | DET 26, ARI 23 | ARI | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES