ARI @ DET – Week 15 2021
ARI
DET
ARI
AWAY
12@30
DET BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 70%Our line: ARI -7.1
ARI
PICK SIDE
-13.0
MARKET SPREAD
-7.1
OUR LINE
-234
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.122Net EPA / play-0.161
+0.073Offense EPA / play-0.063
-0.049Defense EPA / play+0.098
46.8%Offense success %42.0%
44.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI A+-tier pick misses. DET takes it.
MISSED
Model picked ARI but DET won. Projected margin was 7.1, the model overestimated by 25.1 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 31.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ARI | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -634 | +495 |
| Our fair price | -234 | +234 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -13.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
70%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
84%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
DET
Home Underdog 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
300.5 SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
257.7 SEASON PPR
Christian Kirk
WR
207.6 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray3787 yd · 24 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
James Conner752 yd · 15 TD
Chase Edmonds592 yd · 2 TD
Kyler Murray423 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Christian Kirk77 rec · 982 yd · 5 TD
A.J. Green54 rec · 848 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@ARIW3 2024 | DET 20, ARI 13 | DET | W |
| DET@ARIW3 2020 | DET 26, ARI 23 | ARI | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 70% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project ARI by 7.1. The market has ARI at -13.0.
The model projects 47.7 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 20, ARI 13 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Arizona Cardinals: ARI +0.122 against DET -0.161.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
