Chiefs vs Chargers – Week 15 2021
KC
LAC
KC
AWAY
34@28
KC BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 34, Los Angeles Chargers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 58%Our line: KC -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.119Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.144 (1)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (6)
+0.025 (20)Defense EPA / play+0.033 (24)
51.1% (1)Offense success %47.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 6. Off by 3.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 3.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LAC
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@KCW6 2026 | LAC 6, KC 22 | KC | W |
| LAC@KCW15 2025 | LAC 16, KC 13 | KC | L |
| KC@LACW1 2025 | KC 21, LAC 27 | KC | L |
| LAC@KCW14 2024 | LAC 17, KC 19 | KC | W |
| KC@LACW4 2024 | KC 17, LAC 10 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs LAC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 2.8. The market has KC at -3.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 34, LAC 28. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 15, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 54.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 6.0 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, THU 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, LAC 6, KC 22 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.119 against LAC +0.061.
