2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ BAL – Week 15 2021
GB
BAL
GB
AWAY
31@30
GB +1
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 60%Projected margin: -3.5
GB
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
-3.5
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 3.5. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -354 | Won · +$0.26 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 2-4 ATS (33%)
BAL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
43°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
GB
Davante Adams
WR
344.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
333.3SEASON PPR
Aaron Jones
RB
229.0SEASON PPR
BAL
Mark Andrews
TE
301.1SEASON PPR
Lamar Jackson
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@GBW17 2025 | BAL 41, GB 24 | GB | L |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES