Falcons vs 49ers – Week 15 2021
ATL
SF
ATL
AWAY
13@31
SF BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Atlanta Falcons 13, San Francisco 49ers 31.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons, 4 49ers.
Model confidence: SF 57%Our line: SF -2.5
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -2.5
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.180Net EPA / play+0.120
-0.098 (28)Offense EPA / play+0.087 (7)
+0.082 (29)Defense EPA / play-0.034 (8)
40.4% (29)Offense success %45.7% (12)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 2.5. Actual: 18. Off by 15.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@SFW7 2025 | ATL 10, SF 20 | SF | W |
| SF@ATLW6 2022 | SF 14, ATL 28 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs SF
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 2.5. The market has SF at -9.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, ATL 13, SF 31. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 57% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -9.5, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 15, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.7, 0.7 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ATL 10, SF 20 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: ATL -0.180 against SF +0.120.
