ATL @ SF – Week 15 2021
ATL
SF
ATL
AWAY
13@31
SF BY 18
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
Model confidence: SF 57%Our line: SF -2.5
SF
PICK SIDE
-9.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.5
OUR LINE
-135
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2021 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.180Net EPA / play+0.120
-0.098Offense EPA / play+0.087
+0.082Defense EPA / play-0.034
40.4%Offense success %45.7%
48.5%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SF. Projected margin: 2.5. Actual: 18. Off by 15.5 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | ATL | SF |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +319 | -380 |
| Our fair price | +135 | -135 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD SF -9.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.26
OUR NUMBER
57%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
77%
DIFFERENCE
-19%
Both figures are for SF. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ATL
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
SF
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
46°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
ATL
Cordarrelle Patterson
RB
234.6 SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Kyle Pitts
TE
176.6 SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Atlanta FalconsPASSING
Matt Ryan3968 yd · 20 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Cordarrelle Patterson618 yd · 6 TD
Mike Davis503 yd · 3 TD
Qadree Ollison105 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Kyle Pitts68 rec · 1026 yd · 1 TD
Russell Gage66 rec · 770 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@SFW7 2025 | ATL 10, SF 20 | SF | W |
| SF@ATLW6 2022 | SF 14, ATL 28 | SF | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSATL vs SF
QUESTIONS
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 2.5. The market has SF at -9.5.
The model projects 48.7 combined points. The market total is 48.0.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, ATL 10, SF 20 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, San Francisco 49ers: ATL -0.180 against SF +0.120.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
