Commanders vs Eagles – Week 15 2021
WAS
PHI
WAS
AWAY
17@27
PHI BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
Lincoln Financial Field · Philadelphia, PA
PHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 17, Philadelphia Eagles 27.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: PHI 54%Our line: PHI -1.3
ODDS
SPREAD
PHI -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PHI -1.3
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
54%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.124Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.057 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.070 (10)
+0.067 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (17)
43.9% (20)Offense success %46.9% (8)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PHI. Projected margin: 1.3. Actual: 10. Off by 8.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-10.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
PHI
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
42°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
PHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PHIW1 2026 | WAS 22, PHI 24 | PHI | W |
| WAS@PHIW18 2025 | WAS 24, PHI 17 | PHI | L |
| PHI@WASW16 2025 | PHI 29, WAS 18 | PHI | W |
| PHI@WASW16 2024 | PHI 33, WAS 36 | PHI | L |
| WAS@PHIW11 2024 | WAS 18, PHI 26 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs PHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 54% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PHI by 1.3. The market has PHI at -10.0.
Philadelphia Eagles won, WAS 17, PHI 27. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 54% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -10.0, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 10.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 6.5 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2021 season, TUE 7:00 PM.
Philadelphia Eagles, WAS 22, PHI 24 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Philadelphia Eagles: WAS -0.124 against PHI +0.059.
