2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ JAX – Week 15 2021
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
30@16
HOU +14
FINAL · WEEK 15
2021 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER C
PICK: JAX
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: JAX 51%Projected margin: 0.4
JAX
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
0.4
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but HOU won. Projected margin was 0.4 -- the model overestimated by 14.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 20.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -257 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 5-3 ATS (63%)
JAX
Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
12 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
HOU
Brandin Cooks
WR
231.8SEASON PPR
Davis Mills
QB
157.0SEASON PPR
Rex Burkhead
RB
104.3SEASON PPR
JAX
Trevor Lawrence
QB
199.0SEASON PPR
Marvin Jones
WR
180.2SEASON PPR
James Robinson
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES