JAX @ HOU – Week 10 2025
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
29@36
HOU BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: JAX 58%Our line: JAX -2.6
JAX
PICK SIDE
-1.5
MARKET SPREAD
-2.6
OUR LINE
-137
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.030Offense EPA / play-0.013
-0.105Defense EPA / play-0.131
44.4%Offense success %41.3%
41.3%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but HOU won. Projected margin was 2.6, the model overestimated by 9.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -115 | -105 |
| Our fair price | -137 | +137 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD JAX -1.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
51%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
Both figures are for JAX. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2 SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9 SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
184.7 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
T.Lawrence4007 yd · 29 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
T.Etienne1107 yd · 7 TD
T.Lawrence359 yd · 9 TD
B.Tuten307 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
P.Washington58 rec · 847 yd · 5 TD
B.Thomas48 rec · 707 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW3 2023 | HOU 37, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 2.6. The market has JAX at -1.5.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 37.5.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, HOU 10, JAX 17 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against HOU +0.118.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
