Jaguars vs Texans – Week 10 2025
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
29@36
HOU BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 29, Houston Texans 36.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jaguars, 7 Texans.
Model confidence: JAX 58%Our line: JAX -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.136Net EPA / play+0.118
+0.030 (14)Offense EPA / play-0.013 (21)
-0.105 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.131 (1)
44.4% (15)Offense success %41.3% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX C-tier pick misses. HOU takes it.
MISSED
Model picked JAX but HOU won. Projected margin was 2.6, the model overestimated by 9.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project JAX by 2.6. The market has JAX at -1.5.
Houston Texans won, JAX 29, HOU 36. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -1.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 10, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 37.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 8.0 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, JAX 31 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.136 against HOU +0.118.
