Giants vs Bears – Week 10 2025
NYG
CHI
NYG
AWAY
20@24
CHI BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 10
2025 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 20, Chicago Bears 24.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 7 Giants, 4 Bears.
Model confidence: CHI 75%Our line: CHI -9.1
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -9.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.075Net EPA / play+0.061
+0.012 (17)Offense EPA / play+0.080 (8)
+0.087 (25)Defense EPA / play+0.018 (19)
42.1% (25)Offense success %45.8% (9)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CHI. Projected margin: 9.1. Actual: 4. Off by 5.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 0.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
No noteworthy trends
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
10 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@NYGW4 2022 | CHI 12, NYG 20 | CHI | L |
| NYG@CHIW17 2021 | NYG 3, CHI 29 | CHI | W |
| NYG@CHIW2 2020 | NYG 13, CHI 17 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CHI by 9.1. The market has CHI at -4.5.
Chicago Bears won, NYG 20, CHI 24. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Chicago Bears at -4.5, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 10, the New York Giants were without 7 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 0.3 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Giants, CHI 12, NYG 20 in Week 4 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: NYG -0.075 against CHI +0.061.
