2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CHI @ NYG – Week 4 2022
CHI
NYG
CHI
AWAY
12@20
NYG +8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CHI
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CHI 62%Projected margin: -2.0
CHI
PICK SIDE
+3.0
SPREAD
-2.0
PROJ MARGIN
+154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but NYG won. Projected margin was 2.0 -- the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.0 | CHI market line | |
| MODEL ML | +154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +130 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CHI
Justin Fields
QB
296.0SEASON PPR
David Montgomery
RB
177.7SEASON PPR
Cole Kmet
TE
147.3SEASON PPR
NYG
Daniel Jones
QB
289.0SEASON PPR
Saquon Barkley
RB
284.0SEASON PPR
Richie James
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CHIW10 2025 | NYG 20, CHI 24 | CHI | W |
| NYG@CHIW17 2021 | NYG 3, CHI 29 | CHI | W |
| NYG@CHIW2 2020 | NYG 13, CHI 17 | CHI | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES