Bears vs Giants – Week 4 2022
CHI
NYG
CHI
AWAY
12@20
NYG BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 12, New York Giants 20.
Going in, our model had favored Chicago Bears at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Bears, 5 Giants.
Model confidence: CHI 62%Our line: CHI -4.0
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -4.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.164Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.046 (23)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (9)
+0.118 (32)Defense EPA / play+0.046 (28)
40.5% (27)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
CHI B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CHI but NYG won. Projected margin was 4.0, the model overestimated by 12.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CHIW10 2025 | NYG 20, CHI 24 | CHI | W |
| NYG@CHIW17 2021 | NYG 3, CHI 29 | CHI | W |
| NYG@CHIW2 2020 | NYG 13, CHI 17 | CHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs NYG
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CHI by 4.0. The market has CHI at +3.0.
New York Giants won, CHI 12, NYG 20. Our model had favored Chicago Bears at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Chicago Bears at +3.0, meaning the book expects Chicago Bears to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Chicago Bears were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 39.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 7.2 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Chicago Bears, NYG 20, CHI 24 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Giants: CHI -0.164 against NYG -0.016.
