2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NE @ GB – Week 4 2022
NE
GB
NE
AWAY
24@27
GB +3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
GB
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 65%Projected margin: 4.5
GB
PICK SIDE
-10.0
SPREAD
4.5
PROJ MARGIN
-422
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 4.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -10.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -422 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -435 | Won · +$0.24 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1SEASON PPR
GB
Aaron Jones
RB
248.6SEASON PPR
Aaron Rodgers
QB
239.2SEASON PPR
Allen Lazard
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES