NE @ GB – Week 4 2022
NE
GB
NE
AWAY
24@27
GB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
Model confidence: GB 65%Our line: GB -5.3
GB
PICK SIDE
-10.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.3
OUR LINE
-188
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.054Offense EPA / play+0.003
-0.089Defense EPA / play+0.037
40.9%Offense success %45.8%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 5.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NE | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +358 | -435 |
| Our fair price | +188 | -188 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -10.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.24
OUR NUMBER
65%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
79%
DIFFERENCE
-14%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB
249.1 SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
182.3 SEASON PPR
Mac Jones
QB
170.1 SEASON PPR
GB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New England PatriotsPASSING
Mac Jones2997 yd · 14 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Rhamondre Stevenson1040 yd · 5 TD
Damien Harris462 yd · 3 TD
Mac Jones102 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Jakobi Meyers67 rec · 804 yd · 6 TD
DeVante Parker31 rec · 539 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs GB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.3. The market has GB at -10.0.
The model projects 45.4 combined points. The market total is 40.5.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against GB -0.034.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
