Patriots vs Packers – Week 4 2022
NE
GB
NE
AWAY
24@27
GB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New England Patriots 24, Green Bay Packers 27.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Patriots, 1 Packers.
Model confidence: GB 65%Our line: GB -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.035Net EPA / play-0.034
-0.054 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
-0.089 (3)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (27)
40.9% (24)Offense success %45.8% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected GB by 5.3. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 12 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NE
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNE vs GB
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 5.3. The market has GB at -10.0.
Green Bay Packers won, NE 24, GB 27. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -10.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 4, the New England Patriots were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.4, 4.9 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New England Patriots: NE +0.035 against GB -0.034.
