Titans vs Colts – Week 4 2022
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
24@17
TEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 24, Indianapolis Colts 17.
Going in, our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Titans, 1 Colts.
Model confidence: TEN 58%Our line: TEN -2.8
ODDS
SPREAD
TEN +4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TEN -2.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.064Net EPA / play-0.141
-0.059 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.168 (31)
+0.004 (18)Defense EPA / play-0.027 (11)
41.1% (22)Offense success %39.8% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 7. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Ryan Tannehill2536 yd · 13 TD · 6 INT
RECEIVING
Robert Woods53 rec · 527 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW6 2026 | TEN 26, IND 20 | IND | L |
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs IND
Our model takes Tennessee Titans at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TEN by 2.8. The market has TEN at +4.5.
Tennessee Titans won, TEN 24, IND 17. Our model had favored Tennessee Titans at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Tennessee Titans at +4.5, meaning the book expects Tennessee Titans to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 4, the Tennessee Titans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.6 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 26, IND 20 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Tennessee Titans: TEN -0.064 against IND -0.141.
