2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ IND – Week 4 2022
TEN
IND
TEN
AWAY
24@17
TEN +7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TEN
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: TEN 58%Projected margin: -0.6
TEN
PICK SIDE
+4.5
SPREAD
-0.6
PROJ MARGIN
+191
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TEN C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TEN. Projected margin: 0.6. Actual: 7. Off by 6.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.5 | TEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +191 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +182 | Won · +$1.91 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
IND
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
302.8SEASON PPR
Ryan Tannehill
QB
161.2SEASON PPR
Robert Woods
WR
117.7SEASON PPR
IND
Michael Pittman
WR
216.5SEASON PPR
Matt Ryan
QB
155.3SEASON PPR
Parris Campbell
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@INDW8 2025 | TEN 14, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW3 2025 | IND 41, TEN 20 | IND | W |
| TEN@INDW16 2024 | TEN 30, IND 38 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW6 2024 | IND 20, TEN 17 | IND | W |
| IND@TENW13 2023 | IND 31, TEN 28 | IND | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES