2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
DEN @ LV – Week 4 2022
DEN
LV
DEN
AWAY
23@32
LV +9
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
LV
HOME
TIER C
PICK: DEN
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: DEN 56%Projected margin: 0.7
DEN
PICK SIDE
+2.5
SPREAD
0.7
PROJ MARGIN
+143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LV won. Projected margin was 0.7 -- the model overestimated by 8.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +2.5 | DEN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +124 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
225.8SEASON PPR
Jerry Jeudy
WR
204.2SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
159.4SEASON PPR
LV
Davante Adams
WR
335.5SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
328.3SEASON PPR
Derek Carr
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES