Broncos vs Raiders – Week 4 2022
DEN
LV
DEN
AWAY
23@32
LV BY 9
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Allegiant Stadium · Las Vegas, NV
LV
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 23, Las Vegas Raiders 32.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 5 Broncos, 2 Raiders.
Model confidence: DEN 56%Our line: DEN -2.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN +2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -2.2
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
56%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.060Net EPA / play-0.064
-0.109 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.000 (17)
-0.049 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.064 (29)
38.1% (31)Offense success %43.1% (21)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN C-tier pick misses. LV takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DEN but LV won. Projected margin was 2.2, the model overestimated by 11.2 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
No noteworthy trends
LV
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LV
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3524 yd · 16 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Latavius Murray703 yd · 5 TD
Melvin Gordon318 yd · 2 TD
Russell Wilson277 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Jerry Jeudy67 rec · 972 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@LVW14 2025 | DEN 24, LV 17 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW10 2025 | LV 7, DEN 10 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW12 2024 | DEN 29, LV 19 | DEN | W |
| LV@DENW5 2024 | LV 18, DEN 34 | DEN | W |
| DEN@LVW18 2023 | DEN 14, LV 27 | LV | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs LV
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 56% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project DEN by 2.2. The market has DEN at +2.5.
Las Vegas Raiders won, DEN 23, LV 32. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 56% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Denver Broncos at +2.5, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Denver Broncos were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Las Vegas Raiders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 0.1 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 24, LV 17 in Week 14 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Denver Broncos: DEN -0.060 against LV -0.064.
