2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
ARI @ CAR – Week 4 2022
ARI
CAR
ARI
AWAY
26@16
ARI +10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER B
PICK: ARI
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: ARI 65%Projected margin: -3.1
ARI
PICK SIDE
+1.0
SPREAD
-3.1
PROJ MARGIN
+115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 3.1. Actual: 10. Off by 6.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.0 | ARI market line | |
| MODEL ML | +115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +102 | Won · +$1.15 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
ARI
Kyler Murray
QB
200.5SEASON PPR
James Conner
RB
200.2SEASON PPR
Marquise Brown
WR
156.0SEASON PPR
CAR
DJ Moore
WR
199.1SEASON PPR
D'Onta Foreman
RB
131.0SEASON PPR
Christian McCaffrey
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2020 | ARI 21, CAR 31 | ARI | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES