Cardinals vs Panthers – Week 4 2022
ARI
CAR
ARI
AWAY
26@16
ARI BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Arizona Cardinals 26, Carolina Panthers 16.
Going in, our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Cardinals.
Model confidence: ARI 65%Our line: ARI -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
ARI +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
ARI -5.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
ARI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.104Net EPA / play-0.037
-0.088 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.035 (20)
+0.016 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
40.6% (26)Offense success %40.7% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 5.1. Actual: 10. Off by 4.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 11.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
ARI
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CAR
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Arizona CardinalsPASSING
Kyler Murray2368 yd · 14 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
James Conner782 yd · 7 TD
Kyler Murray418 yd · 3 TD
Eno Benjamin299 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins64 rec · 717 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@ARIW2 2025 | CAR 22, ARI 27 | ARI | W |
| ARI@CARW16 2024 | ARI 30, CAR 36 | ARI | L |
| CAR@ARIW10 2021 | CAR 34, ARI 10 | ARI | L |
| ARI@CARW4 2020 | ARI 21, CAR 31 | ARI | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSARI vs CAR
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 5.1. The market has ARI at +1.0.
Arizona Cardinals won, ARI 26, CAR 16. Our model had favored Arizona Cardinals at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Arizona Cardinals at +1.0, meaning the book expects Arizona Cardinals to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 4, the Arizona Cardinals were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 3.9 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, CAR 22, ARI 27 in Week 2 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Carolina Panthers: ARI -0.104 against CAR -0.037.
