2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ HOU – Week 4 2022
LAC
HOU
LAC
AWAY
34@24
LAC +10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: LAC 68%Projected margin: -5.5
LAC
PICK SIDE
-5.5
SPREAD
-5.5
PROJ MARGIN
-221
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 10. Off by 4.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -5.5 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -221 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -234 | Won · +$0.45 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
LAC
Austin Ekeler
RB
372.7SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
281.3SEASON PPR
Mike Williams
WR
176.5SEASON PPR
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@LACW17 2025 | HOU 20, LAC 16 | LAC | L |
| LAC@HOUW16 2021 | LAC 29, HOU 41 | LAC | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES