Chargers vs Texans – Week 4 2022
LAC
HOU
LAC
AWAY
34@24
LAC BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 4
2022 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 34, Houston Texans 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers, 2 Texans.
Model confidence: LAC 68%Our line: LAC -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.001Net EPA / play-0.192
+0.007 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.189 (32)
+0.006 (19)Defense EPA / play+0.003 (17)
44.1% (18)Offense success %36.9% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 10. Off by 3.9 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@LACW17 2025 | HOU 20, LAC 16 | LAC | L |
| LAC@HOUW16 2021 | LAC 29, HOU 41 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs HOU
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 6.1. The market has LAC at -5.5.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LAC 34, HOU 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -5.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 4, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.3, 3.3 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 20, LAC 16 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.001 against HOU -0.192.
