HOU @ LAC – Week 9 2026
HOU
LAC
HOU
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
LAC
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 69%Projected margin: -4.2
HOU
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.2
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.059
-0.013Offense EPA / play-0.024
-0.131Defense EPA / play-0.083
41.3%Offense success %43.1%
38.3%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
HOU is our early forecast in HOU @ LAC (Week 9, 2026). The model assigns 68.5% confidence and projects HOU by 4.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | HOU market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7SEASON PPR
LAC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
C.Stroud3041 yd · 19 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
W.Marks703 yd · 2 TD
N.Chubb506 yd · 3 TD
C.Stroud209 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
N.Collins71 rec · 1117 yd · 6 TD
D.Schultz82 rec · 777 yd · 3 TD
J.Higgins41 rec · 525 yd · 6 TD
X.Hutchinson35 rec · 428 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,041PASSyds3,727
1,418RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@LACW17 2025 | HOU 20, LAC 16 | LAC | L |
| LAC@HOUW4 2022 | LAC 34, HOU 24 | LAC | W |
| LAC@HOUW16 2021 | LAC 29, HOU 41 | LAC | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs LAC
Who is favored in Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers?
Our model takes Houston Texans at 69% win probability. The margin models project HOU by 4.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers play?
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Houston Texans vs Los Angeles Chargers game?
Houston Texans, 20-16 in Week 17 of 2025.
Which team has been better, the Houston Texans or the Los Angeles Chargers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.118 against LAC +0.059.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
