Texans vs Chargers – Week 9 2026
HOU
LAC
HOU
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Texans over the Chargers at 68% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: HOU 68%Our line: HOU -6.4
80% range around our line: LAC by 11 to HOU by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the HOU game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -6.4
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
HOU · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
45%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
| SPORTSBOOK | HOU | LAC | HOU WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +114 | -135 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 9 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.048Net EPA / play-0.150
+0.005 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.207 (32)
-0.043 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (6)
42.4% (18)Offense success %37.8% (29)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
HOU is our early forecast in HOU @ LAC (Week 9, 2026). The model assigns 68% confidence and projects HOU by 6.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@LACW17 2025 | HOU 20, LAC 16 | LAC | L |
| LAC@HOUW4 2022 | LAC 34, HOU 24 | LAC | W |
| LAC@HOUW16 2021 | LAC 29, HOU 41 | LAC | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs LAC
Our model takes Houston Texans at 68% win probability. The margin models project HOU by 6.4. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Houston Texans at 68% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 20, LAC 16 in Week 17 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Houston Texans: HOU +0.048 against LAC -0.150.
