TB @ CHI – Week 9 2026
TB
CHI
TB
AWAY
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: CHI 68%Projected margin: -4.3
CHI
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.3
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.022Net EPA / play+0.061
-0.009Offense EPA / play+0.080
+0.013Defense EPA / play+0.018
42.4%Offense success %45.8%
44.9%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
CHI is our early forecast in TB @ CHI (Week 9, 2026). The model assigns 68.1% confidence and projects CHI by 4.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL CONVICTION
High. The model is fully behind this side.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | CHI market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
143.0SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
B.Mayfield3693 yd · 26 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
B.Irving588 yd · 1 TD
R.White572 yd · 4 TD
B.Mayfield382 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
E.Egbuka63 rec · 938 yd · 6 TD
C.Otton59 rec · 572 yd · 1 TD
S.Shepard39 rec · 371 yd · 1 TD
M.Evans30 rec · 368 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,693PASSyds3,942
1,542RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW2 2023 | CHI 17, TB 27 | TB | W |
| CHI@TBW7 2021 | CHI 3, TB 38 | TB | W |
| TB@CHIW5 2020 | TB 19, CHI 20 | TB | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CHI
Who is favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears?
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 68% win probability. The margin models project CHI by 4.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Chicago Bears play?
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Who won the last Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Chicago Bears game?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 17-27 in Week 2 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or the Chicago Bears?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Chicago Bears: TB -0.022 against CHI +0.061.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
