Buccaneers vs Bears – Week 9 2026
TB
CHI
TB
AWAY
@
SUN 8:20 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Bears over the Buccaneers at 71% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: CHI 71%Our line: CHI -7.5
80% range around our line: TB by 10 to CHI by 25. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the CHI game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
CHI —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CHI -7.5
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
CHI · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
CHI · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
64%
DIFFERENCE
+7%
| SPORTSBOOK | TB | CHI | CHI WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +164 | -198 | 64.3% |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 9 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
-0.031Net EPA / play+0.008
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
-0.057 (7)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
40.9% (23)Offense success %46.1% (11)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: model favors CHI at 71%.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
CHI goes for it on 4th down 42% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
CHI scores 1.8 points per drive vs 1.2 for TB. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.5-point margin.
Net-positive signal profile for CHI. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@TBW2 2023 | CHI 17, TB 27 | TB | W |
| CHI@TBW7 2021 | CHI 3, TB 38 | TB | W |
| TB@CHIW5 2020 | TB 19, CHI 20 | TB | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs CHI
Our model takes Chicago Bears at 71% win probability. The margin models project CHI by 7.5. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Chicago Bears at 71% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, CHI 17, TB 27 in Week 2 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Chicago Bears: TB -0.031 against CHI +0.008.
