Jaguars vs Ravens – Week 9 2026
JAX
BAL
JAX
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
THU 8:15 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Jaguars over the Ravens at 58% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: JAX 58%Our line: JAX -2.9
80% range around our line: BAL by 14 to JAX by 20. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the JAX game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -2.9
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
JAX · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
35%
DIFFERENCE
+23%
| SPORTSBOOK | JAX | BAL | JAX WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +170 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 9 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.239Net EPA / play+0.168
+0.151 (6)Offense EPA / play+0.151 (5)
-0.088 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.017 (16)
46.9% (9)Offense success %50.7% (2)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
JAX is our early forecast in JAX @ BAL (Week 9, 2026). The model assigns 58% confidence and projects JAX by 2.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
The three models split on this game. The majority side is what we publish, and it carries less weight than a unanimous one.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@JAXW15 2023 | BAL 23, JAX 7 | BAL | W |
| BAL@JAXW12 2022 | BAL 27, JAX 28 | BAL | L |
| JAX@BALW15 2020 | JAX 14, BAL 40 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs BAL
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability. The margin models project JAX by 2.9. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Jacksonville Jaguars at 58% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 9 of the 2026 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 23, JAX 7 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: JAX +0.239 against BAL +0.168.
