Lions vs Dolphins – Week 9 2026
DET
MIA
DET
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
Hard Rock Stadium · Miami Gardens, FL
MIA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Lions over the Dolphins at 71% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: DET 71%Our line: DET -7.3
80% range around our line: MIA by 10 to DET by 25. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the DET game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
DET —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DET -7.3
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
DET · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DET · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
71%
DIFFERENCE
+0%
| SPORTSBOOK | DET | MIA | DET WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | -278 | +225 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 9 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.029Net EPA / play-0.224
+0.180 (3)Offense EPA / play-0.116 (29)
+0.152 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.108 (28)
49.1% (4)Offense success %37.6% (30)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DET at 71%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DET generates 0.180 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.108. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 31% of the time, among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
DET converts 93% in the red zone vs 50% for MIA. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.7 points per drive vs 1.0 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 7.3-point margin.
Multiple signals align in DET's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@DETW8 2022 | MIA 31, DET 27 | MIA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs MIA
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 71% win probability. The margin models project DET by 7.3. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors Detroit Lions at 71% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Miami Dolphins, MIA 31, DET 27 in Week 8 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.029 against MIA -0.224.
