DET @ MIA – Week 9 2026
DET
MIA
DET
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
MIA
HOME
Model confidence: DET 60%Projected margin: -0.2
DET
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-0.2
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.091Net EPA / play-0.105
+0.081Offense EPA / play-0.017
-0.010Defense EPA / play+0.088
45.2%Offense success %41.9%
41.7%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: DET at 60%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
DET generates 0.081 EPA/play on offense. MIA's defense allows 0.088. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 27% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.5 for MIA. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for DET. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | DET market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DET
J.Gibbs
RB
366.9SEASON PPR
A.St. Brown
WR
324.0SEASON PPR
J.Goff
QB
297.1SEASON PPR
MIA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Detroit LionsPASSING
J.Goff4564 yd · 34 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
J.Gibbs1223 yd · 13 TD
D.Montgomery716 yd · 8 TD
J.Goff45 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
A.St. Brown117 rec · 1401 yd · 11 TD
J.Williams65 rec · 1117 yd · 7 TD
J.Gibbs77 rec · 616 yd · 5 TD
S.LaPorta40 rec · 489 yd · 3 TD
VS
4,564PASSyds2,660
1,984RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@DETW8 2022 | MIA 31, DET 27 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDET vs MIA
Who is favored in Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins?
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 60% win probability. The margin models project DET by 0.2. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Detroit Lions and Miami Dolphins play?
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Detroit Lions vs Miami Dolphins game?
Miami Dolphins, 31-27 in Week 8 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Detroit Lions or the Miami Dolphins?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: DET +0.091 against MIA -0.105.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
