LV @ SF – Week 9 2026
LV
SF
LV
AWAY
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
SF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: SF 82%Projected margin: -11.8
SF
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-11.8
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.240Net EPA / play+0.018
-0.215Offense EPA / play+0.088
+0.024Defense EPA / play+0.070
37.6%Offense success %48.3%
45.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: SF at 82%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
SF generates 0.088 EPA/play on offense. LV's defense allows 0.024. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
RED ZONE
SF converts 85% in the red zone vs 61% for LV. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
SF scores 2.0 points per drive vs 1.0 for LV. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
BLOWOUT PROJ
Model projects a 11.8-point margin.
Multiple signals align in SF's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | SF market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LV
A.Jeanty
RB
245.1SEASON PPR
B.Bowers
TE
176.2SEASON PPR
G.Smith
QB
173.9SEASON PPR
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
G.Smith3025 yd · 19 TD · 17 INT
RUSHING
A.Jeanty975 yd · 5 TD
G.Smith109 yd · 0 TD
R.Mostert104 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
T.Tucker57 rec · 696 yd · 5 TD
B.Bowers64 rec · 680 yd · 7 TD
J.Meyers33 rec · 352 yd · 0 TD
A.Jeanty55 rec · 346 yd · 5 TD
VS
3,025PASSyds2,167
1,188RUSHyds
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs SF
Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers?
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 82% win probability. The margin models project SF by 11.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Las Vegas Raiders and San Francisco 49ers play?
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Las Vegas Raiders vs San Francisco 49ers game?
San Francisco 49ers, 37-34 in Week 17 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Las Vegas Raiders or the San Francisco 49ers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, San Francisco 49ers: LV -0.240 against SF +0.018.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
