DAL @ IND – Week 9 2026
DAL
IND
DAL
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
IND
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: IND 60%Projected margin: -1.0
IND
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-1.0
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.070Net EPA / play+0.068
+0.097Offense EPA / play+0.072
+0.167Defense EPA / play+0.004
46.6%Offense success %46.3%
48.9%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: IND at 60%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
IND generates 0.072 EPA/play on offense. DAL's defense allows 0.167. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
IND goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
IND converts 95% in the red zone vs 73% for DAL. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
Net-positive signal profile for IND. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | IND market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
242.8SEASON PPR
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
D.Prescott4552 yd · 30 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
J.Williams1201 yd · 11 TD
M.Davis250 yd · 2 TD
D.Prescott177 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
G.Pickens93 rec · 1429 yd · 9 TD
C.Lamb75 rec · 1077 yd · 3 TD
J.Ferguson82 rec · 600 yd · 8 TD
R.Flournoy40 rec · 475 yd · 4 TD
VS
4,552PASSyds3,101
1,628RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@DALW13 2022 | IND 19, DAL 54 | DAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs IND
Who is favored in Dallas Cowboys at Indianapolis Colts?
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 60% win probability. The margin models project IND by 1.0. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts play?
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Dallas Cowboys vs Indianapolis Colts game?
Dallas Cowboys, 19-54 in Week 13 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Dallas Cowboys or the Indianapolis Colts?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Indianapolis Colts: DAL -0.070 against IND +0.068.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
