Packers vs Patriots – Week 9 2026
GB
NE
GB
AWAY
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
OUR PICK
THE SHORT ANSWER
Our model favors the Patriots over the Packers at 69% win probability. No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Model confidence: NE 69%Our line: NE -6.8
80% range around our line: GB by 11 to NE by 24. Four games in five land inside it.
Betting the NE game? Pro shows whether we flag it as a bet, at what price, and your stake at your unit size →
ODDS
SPREAD
NE —
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NE -6.8
OUR LINE
MONEYLINE
NE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
NE · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
53%
DIFFERENCE
+16%
| SPORTSBOOK | GB | NE | NE WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +105 | -125 |
PREGAME SNAPSHOTWEEK 9 · WHAT MATTERS AT KICKOFF
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES
+0.018Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.021 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.046 (11)
-0.039 (11)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (17)
40.7% (24)Offense success %45.4% (13)
PROJECTED MARGINHOW THE FINAL SCORE COULD LAND
WHY THIS PICK
NE is our early forecast in GB @ NE (Week 9, 2026). The model assigns 69% confidence and projects NE by 6.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so the model re-runs this forecast every Wednesday as the season plays out.
MODEL AGREEMENT
All three models picked this side. The tier above is a separate read: it reflects how big a margin they project, not how many agreed.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love1408 yd · 10 TD · 3 INT
RUSHING
M.Lloyd112 yd · 2 TD
K.Johnson106 yd · 0 TD
C.Brooks70 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
C.Watson26 rec · 474 yd · 6 TD
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 9 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs NE
Our model takes New England Patriots at 69% win probability. The margin models project NE by 6.8. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
Our model favors New England Patriots at 69% win probability.
No betting line has been posted for this game yet.
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, NE 24, GB 27 in Week 4 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New England Patriots: GB +0.018 against NE +0.055.
