NYJ @ KC – Week 9 2026
NYJ
KC
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 9 · 2026 SEASON
KC
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: KC 69%Projected margin: -4.6
KC
PICK SIDE
—
SPREAD
-4.6
PROJ MARGIN
—
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.055
-0.127Offense EPA / play+0.035
+0.147Defense EPA / play-0.020
40.7%Offense success %44.5%
45.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Early forecast: KC at 69%, backed by epa edge.
EPA EDGE
KC generates 0.035 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
KC goes for it on 4th down 26% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
KC scores 1.6 points per drive vs 1.0 for NYJ. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for KC. This forecast updates every Wednesday as the season plays out.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | — | KC market line | |
| MONEYLINE | Moneyline not recorded for this game | ||
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
B.Hall36 rec · 350 yd · 1 TD
A.Mitchell24 rec · 301 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,259PASSyds3,587
1,684RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| KC@NYJW4 2023 | KC 23, NYJ 20 | KC | W |
| NYJ@KCW8 2020 | NYJ 9, KC 35 | KC | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs KC
Who is favored in New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs?
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 69% win probability. The margin models project KC by 4.6. No betting line has been posted for this game yet, so this is an early forecast that regenerates every Wednesday.
When do the New York Jets and Kansas City Chiefs play?
Week 9 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New York Jets vs Kansas City Chiefs game?
Kansas City Chiefs, 23-20 in Week 4 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the Kansas City Chiefs?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Kansas City Chiefs: NYJ -0.274 against KC +0.055.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
