Chiefs vs Jets – Week 4 2023
KC
NYJ
KC
AWAY
23@20
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 23, New York Jets 20.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Chiefs, 2 Jets.
Model confidence: KC 82%Our line: KC -12.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -9.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -12.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.107Net EPA / play-0.133
+0.021 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.252 (32)
-0.086 (6)Defense EPA / play-0.119 (3)
43.7% (12)Offense success %35.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 12.3. Actual: 3. Off by 9.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs NYJ
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 82% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project KC by 12.3. The market has KC at -9.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 23, NYJ 20. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 82% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -9.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 9.5 points.
In Week 4, the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.2, 4.7 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, NYJ 9, KC 35 in Week 8 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.107 against NYJ -0.133.
