Broncos vs Bears – Week 4 2023
DEN
CHI
DEN
AWAY
31@28
DEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 31, Chicago Bears 28.
Going in, our model had favored Denver Broncos at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Broncos, 3 Bears.
Model confidence: DEN 62%Our line: DEN -4.2
ODDS
SPREAD
DEN -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DEN -4.2
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DEN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.077Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.058 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.049 (19)
+0.019 (26)Defense EPA / play-0.042 (14)
42.1% (14)Offense success %41.8% (18)
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 4.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
190.2 SEASON PPR
179.2 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs CHI
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.2. The market has DEN at -3.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 31, CHI 28. Our model had favored Denver Broncos at 62% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Denver Broncos at -3.0, meaning the book expects Denver Broncos to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 4, the Denver Broncos were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.5, 1.5 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: DEN -0.077 against CHI -0.007.
