DEN @ CHI – Week 4 2023
DEN
CHI
DEN
AWAY
31@28
DEN BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
Model confidence: DEN 62%Our line: DEN -4.2
DEN
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.2
OUR LINE
-165
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.077Net EPA / play-0.007
-0.058Offense EPA / play-0.049
+0.019Defense EPA / play-0.042
42.1%Offense success %41.8%
44.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
DEN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DEN by 4.2. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 1.2 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | DEN | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -162 | +136 |
| Our fair price | -165 | +165 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD DEN -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
62%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
59%
DIFFERENCE
+3%
Both figures are for DEN. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
80°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
Russell Wilson
QB
256.9 SEASON PPR
Courtland Sutton
WR
190.2 SEASON PPR
Javonte Williams
RB
179.2 SEASON PPR
CHI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Denver BroncosPASSING
Russell Wilson3070 yd · 26 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Javonte Williams774 yd · 3 TD
Jaleel McLaughlin410 yd · 1 TD
Russell Wilson341 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Courtland Sutton59 rec · 772 yd · 10 TD
Jerry Jeudy54 rec · 758 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs CHI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Denver Broncos at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DEN by 4.2. The market has DEN at -3.0.
The model projects 45.5 combined points. The market total is 47.0.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Chicago Bears: DEN -0.077 against CHI -0.007.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
