2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LV @ LAC – Week 4 2023
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
17@24
LAC +7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
LAC
HOME
TIER B
PICK: LAC
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: LAC 64%Projected margin: 2.8
LAC
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked LAC. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 7. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (+7.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | LAC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -310 | Won · +$0.36 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
LV
Davante Adams
WR
265.4SEASON PPR
Jakobi Meyers
WR
218.6SEASON PPR
Josh Jacobs
RB
181.1SEASON PPR
LAC
Keenan Allen
WR
278.9SEASON PPR
Justin Herbert
QB
234.2SEASON PPR
Austin Ekeler
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
| LAC@LVW15 2023 | LAC 21, LV 63 | LV | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES