Raiders vs Chargers – Week 4 2023
LV
LAC
LV
AWAY
17@24
LAC BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 4
2023 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LAC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Las Vegas Raiders 17, Los Angeles Chargers 24.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Raiders, 5 Chargers.
Model confidence: LAC 64%Our line: LAC -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC -5.0
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.037Net EPA / play-0.088
-0.097 (25)Offense EPA / play-0.076 (24)
-0.060 (9)Defense EPA / play+0.012 (25)
41.2% (19)Offense success %41.0% (22)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected LAC by 5.0. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-7.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LV
Divisional 4-1 ATS (80%)
LAC
Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Las Vegas RaidersPASSING
Aidan O'Connell2218 yd · 12 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LV@LACW2 2026 | LV 26, LAC 14 | LAC | L |
| LV@LACW13 2025 | LV 14, LAC 31 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW2 2025 | LAC 20, LV 9 | LAC | W |
| LAC@LVW18 2024 | LAC 34, LV 20 | LAC | W |
| LV@LACW1 2024 | LV 10, LAC 22 | LV | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLV vs LAC
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LAC by 5.0. The market has LAC at -7.0.
Los Angeles Chargers won, LV 17, LAC 24. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at -7.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 4, the Las Vegas Raiders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Chargers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 2.1 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Las Vegas Raiders, LV 26, LAC 14 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Las Vegas Raiders: LV -0.037 against LAC -0.088.
